Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Second Quarter Market Trends Defy Suggestions of Housing Bubbles

Royal LePage forecasts modest house price gains for remainder of 2013, as Canadian housing emerges from current market cycle

TORONTO, July 9, 2013 – The average price of a home in Canada increased between 1.2 per cent and 2.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2013, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, released today.

According to the survey, markets across the country continue to post gains. In the second quarter, standard two-storey homes and detached bungalows both showed a year-over-year average price increase of 2.7 per cent to $419,614 and $386,547, respectively. Average prices for standard condominiums showed a more modest increase during the same period, rising 1.2 per cent to $248,750. Royal LePage forecasts that house prices will see modest gains throughout the remainder of 2013, projecting a 3.0 per cent increase for the full year when compared to 2012.

Dialogue concerning the direction of Canada’s housing market has remained front and centre in recent months. Changes to Canada’s mortgage lending rules in mid-2012 coupled with concerns about consumer debt levels, housing affordability in cities like Toronto and Vancouver and continued international economic uncertainty have prompted a number of analysts to forecast large downward price adjustments.

“As we have stated consistently since the current market downturn began late in the second quarter of 2012, this is a normal cyclical correction which brings fewer home sales and softer prices. Those hoping their predictions of a bursting bubble and cataclysmic drops in home values will come true are out of luck again,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage. “Price appreciation in most markets across the country has been well below the long-term average for Canada and will remain so through to the end of the year. We expect to see the number of homes trading hands to begin to rise slightly on a year-over-year basis in the second half of 2013, with price softness continuing until mid-2014, at which point we’ll see an emergence from the current cycle.”

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